Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained?

 

Starter's Gun Or Firing Squad?

For the last week or so, there has been a lot of debate surrounding the acquisition of LinkedIn by Microsoft; not only are most outside analysts mystified as to exactly how the LinkedIn market segment can augment Microsoft's annual revenues (despite some confusing references to the "Microsoft Cloud Platform"), they are also stunned that Microsoft has declared that it will finance the acquisition with borrowed cash! Some firmly state that borrowing the money was a result of the fact that Microsoft doesn't really have the money itself; others surmise that financing a multi-billion-dollar acquisition with a loan is a strategy developed by the brain trust at Microsoft headquarters, who believe that (if it works) the deal will elevate Microsoft policy-makers from the status of clueless computer nerds to captains of the financial industry...& if it doesn't, they will still be clueless computer nerds. No worries...they believe.

Anyway, the step is not entirely official just yet; the deal is set to be finalized by the end of 2016...so both Microsoft & LinkedIn have approximately 6 months to either stand firm or retrace their steps. While some might be sorely tempted to start taking bets right now, it is still too early in the day to know with any degree of accuracy whether the acquisition announcement was made because the executives of the companies in question have made their decision or because they want to assess the public's response to this idea. After all, a sizeable portion of the international analyst community believes that Bayer was never serious about acquiring Monsanto & was simply giving Monsanto a hand in repairing its badly-damaged credibility, by pretending that the likes of Bayer consider almost-bankrupt companies like Monsanto a "catch".

But the point is that Microsoft has been making a lot of blunders lately; for instance, everyone thought that the clunky Windows XP was a giant step back from the much-snazzier Windows 98 SE - Microsoft personnel themselves proved that they shared that opinion by the number of XP patches they issued over the following years. When people became resigned to being stuck with XP, Windows 7 (complete with all its glorious errors) appeared like a bolt from the blue. The kinks in Windows 7 had barely been ironed out, when Windows 8 - which seems to be designed for artistically-inclined 10-year-olds - blew across the world with the suddenness of a typhoon. To be honest, most folk still haven't accepted this latest setback of an operating system, & Microsoft has already begun the digital version of blackmail by indirectly threatening to switch people's operating systems from 7 or 8 to 10 without their informed consent, simply by doing so remotely while the victim surfs the Web. Users can only hope that this foot-in-the-door marketing technique is discontinued once the end date arrives late next month.

So, the gazillion dollar question is, what is the likely effect of this planned acquisition on the LinkedIn member network? This question, which only Time can truly answer, consists of 3 components, which are as follows:

Posts & Groups Versus (Un)Lucky Number 10

I am a professional blog founder & administrator since over a year. To be honest, my viewership numbers are pathetic, but various online blogger bulletin boards explain the phenomenon as having something to do with some new algorithms that were introduced on to the Internet a few years ago that aim to keep bloggers' egos in check - especially the ones that prefer to write from their own unique perspective instead of toeing the company line. Those algorithms seem to have been universally adopted because not only are the stats unrealistically low on WordPress & Blogspot, even after amassing over 1,100 connections, my LinkedIn post numbers are lower than they were when I had barely a dozen connections. Apparently, either I switch to commenting on celebrity love affairs or live with glacial viewership numbers. Ordinarily, I'd break out the racy gossip with no regrets, but I kind of like my own stuff. Therefore, to paraphrase a line from the memorable film version of Miami Vice, "I don't audition for business, business auditions for me".

But Microsoft's increasingly-controlling approach over the last decade or so appears to qualify as cause for concern, when it comes to the free-range news supplied by LinkedIn members to LinkedIn's signature online newspaper "Pulse" & the delightfully-varied groups that are available for practically every topic under the sun. Will Microsoft issue orders that people who wish to discuss topics that don't qualify as subliminal advertising for Microsoft products & services be "discouraged" from sharing their views on Pulse? Will LinkedIn group members have to deal with pouting from other "members" if any one of them decides to spend time & effort on discussing more unique topics than Bing? LinkedIn has already begun becoming somewhat insular in that it has started showing signs that if content posted via its service is not run-of-the-mill, it doesn't matter if it adheres to the rules of social decency, it will still be subtly sidelined. Is this situation going to progress further if or when Microsoft officially takes over the reins of the company?

Which brings us to the most horrifying possibility of all: WILL MICROSOFT DECREE THAT LINKEDIN IS ONLY ACCESSIBLE TO PEOPLE WHO USE WINDOWS 10?! If so, the majority of the world's computer user population - especially competent, committed Asian professionals who have neither the time nor the inclination to switch their operating systems every other quarter - will have to humble themselves by waiting for the somewhat-anticipated Twitter character limit to be raised to 10,000 in order to communicate with one another...since - no offense - Facebook has been so reduced in reputation lately that most 30-something professionals consider it the place to go if you can't get laid without the help of a laptop & a snapshot of someone richer & better-looking than yourself.

Silver Lining

Anyway, to look on the bright side, the implementation of the 10,000 character limit on Twitter will allow users the option of making statements that don't sound like a drunken text to a childhood friend; in other words, somewhere in the mists of the future, Twitter posts might actually begin to make sense to somebody who doesn't live & breathe for the not-petty details of any single individual's daily routine. In addition, if the LinkedIn acquisition by Microsoft actually goes through, it might also mean that Tweeting will become more than what celebrity actors & actresses are expected to do during the promotion of a movie or TV show, what idle teenagers do when they feel that learning to write legibly is an obsolete concept & when elderly public servants suffering the effects of a mid-life crisis decide to sneak their views into people's knowledge without having to listen to the opinions those views inspired. So, the lesson learnt is that there is some good news even in bad news. Hopefully, people will get to discuss this ideology on LinkedIn Groups & Posts for many years to come.

Free Basics: Poser Or Panacea?

"My Sympathies, Friend. You've No Manner Of Luck At All."

Poor Mark Zuckerberg set out to launch "Free Basics" (formerly the "Internet.org Platform") with such good intentions! I fully agree with his stance that, if handled correctly, the Web can be the solution to more problems than humankind can currently imagine. But the operative concept is "handled correctly". Despite the fact that Free Basics has been launched in 15 countries (including mine), its potential has been badly compromised by the embarrassing net neutrality debate that has broken out shortly after it was mainstreamed.

Some folks would explain this series of unfortunate events as sheer bad luck. But rather than lunging for the nearest sorcerer who claims he can drive away misfortune, Mr. Zuckerberg, being a computer programmer by profession, needs to speak to a financial expert who is skilled enough to design an appropriate nation-based business model for Free Basics (once the current attempt has been officially classified as "crashed & burned"). After all, everyone knows that simply because it's free, doesn't mean it isn't business.

Whether Free Basics manages to take flight or not is something only Time will tell; however, since all that could be said about net neutrality has been exhaustively discussed (particularly in the Indian papers), it may be time for us to start exploring how this very promising project could actually be made relevant to the average person.

Free Basics - Pakistan

Life in Pakistan is complicated. Poverty is no longer the most significant threat to the pursuit of happiness. The spectre of security breaches has begun to weigh so heavily on the minds of the authorities, that the application of relevant preventive measures has become the biggest responsibility - & expense - of the common man. Every 1-horse town shopkeeper has a biometric scanning machine sitting on his counter, every tea shop has a retired sepoy armed with a rusted rifle standing at the entrance. Every day it seems that strip searches might be made standard practice at the local grocery store any minute.

All this has yielded one astonishing result: The market for specialized & customized software has spiked. Last month, the Lahore High Court (LHC) & the Punjab Information Technology Board (PITB) announced that they have awarded a 1-year contract to computer firms Speridian Technologies & Techlogix to develop a smartphone app by December this year that will keep lawyers, court employees & litigants updated on the progress of various lawsuits. Until recently, the afore-mentioned classes of society normally went to court nearly every day, & when they didn't, they simply called a friend & asked him for this information. Why the need for software now? Because, among other possible explanations, it is possible that the frequent security operations could be proving disruptive in the normal functions of Pakistani courts.

The way this state-of-affairs is relevant to Free Basics is that the crux of the difficulty is actually being allowed to smoothly visit a place for information. It stands to reason that such a difficulty could be greatly alleviated if accurate, complete & up-to-date public record information was available online.

Medicine

Contrary to the impression conveyed by shows like "House" & "Grey's Anatomy", the medical profession is not an exciting detective story. People rarely come in with genuine diseases that change from one set of symptoms to another in the blink of an eye; surgeons never look upon their surgeries as intellectually stimulating hobbies or chat about their social lives over a patient's cut-open body. It's interesting to pretend these things happen, but that doesn't make such stories even remotely true.

Medicine is a science in every sense of the word. Rules & standards are the only things that matter. Not being able to explain a patient's symptoms is not cause for intellectual gymnastics, it is a black mark on a conscientious doctor's record. So, you can well imagine how much graver the situation would be if the doctor is not allowed to explain the patient's symptoms. Sadly, this scenario has been a regular happening for at least the last decade or so.

In nearly every era, there is at least one class of human suffering that is forbidden to be accurately identified by the powers-that-be of a given region. For example, 16th Century apothecary & seer Nostradamus initially made a name for himself when he worked with Dr. Louis Serre to fight the plague in Marseilles. They alleviated a lot of suffering, but before they could do that, they had to take the risk of opposing the French authorities who explained the plague as Divine Retribution against sinners.

Today, we are in a position to spare doctors the risks that people like Dr. Serre took centuries ago. If a free simply-worded online database were launched, that described clearly & honestly what is the real explanation for the strange ailments sweeping the Developing World today, doctors could continue getting points for "good behavior" & patients could get the truth about their problems.

Law

Lawyers often say that a rule book is worthless if it is unaccompanied by commentary from an experienced lawyer. Laws & rules themselves make very slim volumes, it is the commentary that produces those gigantic tomes we see on law office bookshelves. Every court (at least in Pakistan) has a law library. For a small monthly fee, lawyers & litigants can visit the library any time to get information on everything from legal strategies to case laws.

But that is only convenient for those who have to go to court regularly anyway, either because they work there or because they have cases there. What about someone who is neither a lawyer nor a litigant, but occasionally would like to follow a given case for professional purposes such as stock analysis? Would he or she want to put up with the hassle of wasting time, energy & money on trying to gather information in an alien environment where he or she is viewed as a suspect because of the lack of an obvious purpose for the visit?

It would be far easier if legal news were published regularly on the relevant court's official website & online law library membership were possible for a bill that could be sent to the candidate's residence or office & paid at the nearest bank (like is done for utilities).

Relevance Is The Essence Of A Good Business Model

There was a news item in the international media a few days ago about how IBM & Microsoft are making attempts to ride the wave of Chinese interest in spreading national awareness of the new forms of pollution. The software applications they are offering to the Chinese Government have not been designed in sunny California, because Californians have no reason to be genuinely concerned about dying of atmospheric poisoning. These programs have been written by Chinese software engineers & programmers - that is, the people who know not only their own job very well, but also stand to suffer from neglecting the environmental problem. IBM & Microsoft did the sensible thing & acknowledged that "only the wearer knows where the shoe pinches" & an attractive - & profitable - product was the result.

Free Basics is a good idea, but it is not being packaged in a practical & attractive way. Case in point: Facebook has partnered with Telenor to launch Free Basics in Pakistan. They offer free access to prepaid & postpaid Telenor subscribers to the following 17 websites:

01. Facebook
02. Telenor Mobile Portal
03. Telenor News
04. BBC News
05. BBC Urdu
06. Bing
07. Wikipedia
08. OLX
09. Accu Weather
10. Babycenter & MAMA
11. ESPN CricInfo
12. Facts for Life
13. Girl Effect
14. IlmkiDunya
15. Malaria No More
16. Mustakbil
17. UrduPoint Cooking

Now I can understand the position of honor given to Facebook & Telenor sites. But of the rest of the list, the only sites that are used regularly enough to be recognizable are Bing, Wikipedia, BBC News, BBC Urdu & ESPN CricInfo. Most Pakistanis have never even heard of most of the others & don't particularly care about the ones that they have. So, is it really the net neutrality debate that has scuppered Free Basics? Or is it the fact that most of the sites on offer just don't matter to most of the people?

FIFA Versus NFL - Butter Versus Margarine?

 

FIFA: The Hits Just Keep On Coming!

FIFA just can't seem to catch a break. First, it lost Gregory Mertens; then it lost Tim Nicot; the world was in shock over the tragic deaths of 2 talented young footballers & still trying to make sense of the idea that they both died of cardiac arrest. Of all the things that could have killed 2 strong, young athletes, who would ever have expected a heart attack!

And now the news is out that 7 top FIFA officials are facing indictment for a whole slew of financial crimes & influential FIFA President Sepp Blatter has announced his resignation barely 4 days after he was elected for his fifth term. The actual handing-over-taking-over may take months, but it is a very grave step to announce one's resignation just days after a spectacular victory.

The Principles Of Market Economics

One of the first concepts taught in Economics is how to identify "Complementary" & "Substitute" goods. According to www.businessdictionary.com, these 2 terms are defined as follows:

COMPLEMENTARY GOOD:

"Material or good whose use is interrelated with the use of an associated or paired good such that a demand for one (tyres, for example) generates demand for the other (gasoline, for example). If the price of one good falls & people buy more of it, they will usually buy more of the complementary good also whether or not its price also falls. Similarly, if the price of one good rises & reduces its demand, it may reduce the demand for the paired good as well."

SUBSTITUTE GOOD:

"Different goods that, at least partly, satisfy the same needs of the consumers &, therefore, can be used to replace one another. Price of such goods shows positive cross-elasticity of demand. Thus, if the price of one good goes up, the sales of the other rise & vice versa."

Hollywood, FIFA & NFL

A number of the international financial journals are already discussing the effect the FIFA investigation will have on the economies of Russia & Qatar (on account of the cloud of suspicion that currently surrounds the 2018 & 2022 World Cup tournaments). But they have missed out on one very interesting potential outcome of this chain of events: the US-based National Football League, which features American Football, could be on the road to international popularity if it aims for & successfully takes the market position that was occupied by FIFA (especially in Europe).

The world's most efficient marketing tool is Hollywood. It is said that when "E.T" came out in 1982, the sales of "Reese's Pieces" (the peanut butter candy produced by The Hershey Company & featured prominently in the film) shot up & when "Top Gun" starring Tom Cruise & Val Kilmer was released in 1986, US Air Force recruitments spiked dramatically. While FIFA has maintained its European reserve & mostly steered clear of Hollywood, the NFL has done the sensible thing & already has a number of blockbuster Hollywood productions under its belt, 5 of which are listed below:

-Friday Night Lights (2004)

"A small, turbulent town in Texas obsesses over their high school football team to an unhealthy degree. When the star tailback, Miles (Derek Luke), is seriously injured during the first game of the season, all hope is lost, & the town's dormant social problems begin to flare up. It is left to the inspiring abilities of new coach Gary Gaines (Billy Bob Thornton) to instill in the other team members - &, by proxy, the town itself - a sense of self respect & honor."

-Gridiron Gang (2006)

"A counselor (Dwayne Johnson) at a juvenile detention facility decides to turn the young inmates in his charge into a football team to give them a sense of self respect & social responsibility, but he faces opposition from high school coaches who do not want their players facing criminals on the field."

-The Game Plan (2007)

"Bachelor football star Joe Kingman (Dwayne Johnson) seems to have it all. He is wealthy & carefree, & his team is on the way to capturing a championship. Suddenly, he is tackled by some unexpected news: He has a young daughter (Madison Pettis), the result of a last-minute fling with his ex-wife. Joe must learn to balance his personal & professional lives with the needs of his child."

-The Blind Side (2009)

"Michael Oher (Quinton Aaron), a homeless black teen, has drifted in & out of the school system for years. Then Leigh Anne Tuohy (Sandra Bullock) & her husband, Sean (Tim McGraw), take him in. The Tuohys eventually become Michael's legal guardians, transforming both his life & theirs. Michael's tremendous size & protective instincts make him a formidable force on the gridiron, & with help from his new family & devoted tutor, he realizes his potential as a student & football player."

-Draft Day (2014)

"Sonny Weaver Jr. (Kevin Costner) is the general manager of the Cleveland Browns. One of pro-football's most important days, NFL draft day, is drawing near, but Sonny has much more on his mind than just which players to recruit. His lover (Jennifer Garner) is pregnant, & the team's owner (Frank Langella) wants to fire him. After Sonny accepts a deal with Seattle that nets him that team's first-round pick, he immediately wonders if he has made the right choice for himself & the Browns."

These films, each of which has generated high levels of interest in the sports fan community, are just a few examples of the excellent job Hollywood has already done to make American football synonymous with honor, hope & progress. Unless FIFA scrambles to repair its damaged reputation, there is a strong chance that sponsors like Adidas & Coca Cola will find a new destination for their cash.

All That Glitters: A Lesson From Walt Disney

The Golden Years

December 21, 1937 was a red letter day for all the children of the world, both born & unborn. It was the day that Walt Disney Animation Studios released its first feature-length animated movie "Snow White & The Seven Dwarfs". This almost-80-year-old movie turned out to have such a timeless beauty to it, that it is still a must-see for little kids today.

After that first step, Disney quickly became a household name for children's entertainment across the world. It produced blockbusters like "Dumbo", "Sleeping Beauty", "The Jungle Book", "The Rescuers", "The Little Mermaid", "Mulan" & so many others that are loved by generations of audiences across the world.

Post-2000 Productions

While the new computer-animated versions are admittedly not nearly as beautiful as the older stuff, which is why even kids born after 2000 still appreciate the "Golden Oldies", they are also captivating & interesting. Some examples of excellent movies are "Monsters, Inc.", "Chicken Little", "Ratatouille", "Tangled" & "Frozen".

One explanation for the change in presentation from hand-painted to computer-animated may be Disney's shift in interest to making blockbuster action thrillers like the "National Treasure" & "Pirates Of The Caribbean" series.

It is said however, that Mr. Disney harbored a deep dislike for computer animation & always insisted that, even if it is used for crowd scenes, the work of the artists should always be more important than that of the programmers.

Who Was Walt Disney?

Walt Disney was born in Chicago, the son of a prospector/farmer/businessman & a home-maker. His gift for art & entertainment was there from the beginning & he honed his business instincts as a boy delivering newspapers for his father's newspaper delivery business. The business instinct born of a combination of his natural gift & his work experience was so sharp that, until it became the blockbuster success that it was destined to be, the film industry sneeringly nicknamed the "Snow White & The Seven Dwarfs" project "Disney's Folly".

But Disney was not just a master entertainer & businessman. He was also an accomplished amateur scientist. He understood that if he was to do good business, he must thoroughly understand the capabilities of the technology upon which his business was based, in terms of both its psychological & physiological effects on the audience. So why should such a progressive thinker be so wary of new technology?

One possible explanation could be his accidental run-in with low-frequency sound. In the course of exploring sound effects, he stumbled upon & personally experienced the horrible physiological effects of infrasound.

The experience came about during the screening of one of his animations at the cinema. Disney & his assistant accidentally slowed a cartoon sound effect from 60Hz to 12Hz & amplified the result throughout the entire theatre. The resultant tone, even though it was very brief, triggered severe nausea in the entire audience (including Disney & his assistant) that lasted for several days - but the people outside the theatre remained unharmed!

This episode taught Disney a very valuable lesson: don't embrace something simply because it is new; make sure it is safe first. Perhaps the secret to his success consisted of, not two, but three factors: his artistic gift, his work experience & his careful attitude towards shiny, new things.

Not Enough Cooks To Make The Broth!

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

There is cause for celebration among all the respectable citizens of Pakistan & China, because the first concrete step towards joint economic progress has been taken, in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nearly US$50 billion of Chinese investment has been made official, with the first projects slated to show results as early as 2017. Considering the enthusiastic interest that the world has shown in the Belt & Road Initiative, it is reasonable to assume that the CPEC will prove the first & most significant global demonstration that both Pakistan & China are world-class business centers.

The Pakistan Food Industry - A Pretty Kettle Of Fish

It is said that the way to a person's heart (or wallet) is through his stomach.

But what does that mean for the Pakistan food industry? Other than a few outrageously expensive restaurants in Karachi, Lahore & Islamabad, & a handful of Food Streets scattered around the country, where can a citizen of the world find a decent international menu? Case in point: I don't think there are more than a dozen chefs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who know how to make any dish other than the local stuff. Nearly all the bakeries around here seem as though they have never heard of a decent muffin, or taken cognizance of the fact that not everyone is crazy for margarine; some people like factory-made butter, too.

Granted that due to the combination of abject poverty & the recent epidemic of Sick Building Syndrome during the last decade & a half, people around here are not particularly interested in fancy food. Most of them are just thankful if they get to choke down enough to keep body & soul together. I know how they feel. But, for instance, I have heard that different varieties of soup can do wonders to keep nutrition levels adequately above death bed levels, while combating the "unexplained' attacks of nausea, anorexia or diarrhea that seem to appear & disappear without any medical explanation. But where is a classy local or homesick foreigner to find somebody who can make such things even in the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa itself?

The Multinationals Are In Hot Soup, Too

The default solution to any market problem in Pakistan is: Open a branch of a multinational brand wherever the authorities are about to be put to shame before the world for the lack of facilities. But, that is no longer a viable solution (at least in the food sector) either.

Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) is not doing well since months. Its market share has been steadily declining since last year. Indeed times are so desperate that KFC has been trying to break into the pub business by selling beer since January.

McDonald's (MCD) sales are in free fall. Sales are sliding so fast that MCD had already closed 350 stores in the first quarter of this year & has admitted that it intends closing another 350 by the end of the year.

Tesco (TSCO) is facing an approximately US$20 billion deficit & is facing a greater financial crisis than it has in almost a century. So, even though it has at least one outlet in Lahore, it is unlikely that expansion plans are on the cards.

Walmart (WMT) has been facing financial problems since at least 3 months. Their stock prices - both current & future - are dipping & layoffs are in full swing (currently at 2,200 in the US alone). Things definitely didn't improve when the news broke of mobile meth labs being run in the aisles of Walmart's US stores. Therefore, they are not expected to be considering opening any more branches beyond the one in Karachi.

The Salad Bowl Theory

The Silk Road was such a success in ancient times, because everybody's viewpoint & culture was considered worthy of respect. People were expected to trade in goods, services & knowledge; but the lens through which each individual viewed life was entirely his own business.

For instance the aromatic wheat of Haripur & the sweet tomatoes of Peshawar are world famous to this day. But every person who partakes of these blessings should be free to choose how he would like them prepared.