WHAT HAPPENED
Stockbrokers are some of the most practical people on Earth. They focus only & only on those events in the world that could possibly affect the ever-changing stock ticker rolling across the screens at their place of work...& the poorer the nation in which they work, the hungrier & more focused they are.
Take the Karachi Stock Exchange: it is the most commercially significant bourse in a nation that has produced some of the brightest minds in the world (especially in the fields of medicine, technology & software), while having to constantly contend with allegations of being a "failed state" or a "terrorist state". As a result, it is so efficient & practical that it didn't even allow the visit of the Prime Minister & the Finance Minister to affect business, which literally went on as usual!
That brings us to the sudden 3.44% decline in the KSE100 on Monday, March 30, 2015. It took many private sector analysts, both Pakistani & foreign, by surprise because at the moment, Pakistan is riding the crest of the Silk Route investment wave, The Export-Import Bank of China is lining up investors to construct several more nuclear power stations in the country (according to the Pakistani Finance Minister) & is one of the founding members of the highly-promising Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. So, in a word, what happened?
THE YEMEN SITUATION
The Yemen situation was the reason cited by some local dailies. While they did not actually explain their thought process, they hinted that foreign investors were pulling their money out of Pakistan because there was a possibility that the Pakistan Government may grant Saudi Arabia's request to send Pakistani troops to aid them in their anti-terrorism operation in Yemen.
Now, everybody knows that war is bad for the majority of businesses, but it is also well known that, at one time or another, Pakistan has sent troops to practically every war zone in the world. As a matter of fact, once upon a time, a deployment in the Middle East was looked upon very positively by Pakistan Army personnel because it meant a dramatic raise in their salaries for the duration of their overseas stay. So, why would institutional investors (i.e. the decision-makers in the stock market) feel intimidated by the possibility of Pakistani troops being deployed in Yemen?
THE UNILEVER PLUNGE
While the full breakdown of which stock went up & which went down has not been disclosed in the media as yet, one piece of information did come out: Unilever registered the greatest decline at 5%. This point proved an important clue as to what caused the stumble at the KSE.
Unilever is a British-Dutch multinational consumer goods company co-headquartered in London & Rotterdam, which commands a sizeable share in the Pakistani foods, beverages, personal care products & cleaning agents markets.
While the KSE100 had recovered all its losses by the close of trading on Tuesday, March 31, 2015, Unilever was still plummeting in London. Which means that the likely explanation for this odd event on Monday morning is likely to be the following issues:
Lloyds Bank Enhanced Capital Notes
After the 2008 Financial Crisis, Lloyds designed a bond investor program, called Enhanced Capital Notes (ECNs), to wean the company off financial assistance from the British Government. The ECNs offered an interest rate of over 10%, which proved so attractive that thousands of people bought the bonds.
However, now that the bank is financially stable once again, it states that the bonds no longer count as regulatory capital & it is entitled to redeem them. The meaning of this statement is that it will pay its approximately 10,000 bondholders the face value of the ECNs (instead of the much-higher market value) & wind up the program altogether. The legal battle progresses but any financial conflict that involves a bank as well-established as Lloyds will definitely have an effect on all British financial interests both at home & abroad. Especially considering that other British banks such as Barclays & HSBC are already in hot water for various reasons.
The Netherlands Bird Flu Outbreak
According to a report by Rabobank, the Dutch poultry industry is the international leader. So a bird flu outbreak in March 2015 that has resulted in the culling of 30,000 chickens (so far) is no laughing matter. The outbreak not only affects the entire poultry industry, which was already in decline last year, but also the revenues of the Rotterdam Port through which all poultry exports were sent abroad.
CONCLUSION
Considering that while the KSE is recovering well, Unilever is still facing problems, it is reasonable to assume that while the cause of the plunge was indeed international in nature, the media just focused on the wrong continent, & paid too much attention to an irrelevant military & foreign policy issue.
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