Saturday, June 25, 2016

"There Is Nothing New Under The Sun. It Has All Been Done Before." - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

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The Menace Of Stone Age Living Conditions!

My PTCL 3G Evo Wingle wi-fi connection was suddenly severed without due cause (again) last Thursday night, June 23, 2016 (& wasn't restored until Friday morning, June 24, 2016). It pinched because I had been monitoring proceedings on the Brexit vote, & had hoped to read about the developments as soon as they came in, including the first vote count, the opinion of the British business class, possible effects on the activities of The City, etc. I agree, I could (& did) catch up on the news later on, but it just wasn't the same thing. Oh, well. Maybe this is what happens when you tell a firm that it can't just refuse to pay its debts & expect people to behave as though it is a paragon of Corporate Social Responsibility - even if it does build a few makeshift preschools in Nigeria. Maybe Etisalat feels offended that the Pakistani people don't really want to let it keep US$800 million of the taxpayers' money.

Nowadays, losing one's Internet link is akin to being hurled back into the Stone Age, primarily because channels like CNN & BBC have lost most of their awesomeness during the last decade or so, & now seemingly spend most of their time providing heartwarming coverage of French vineyards & New York City traffic. Great sedative effect, but that's all. The Web is humanity's last hope for accessing information that they actually care to learn...which is why some define being deprived of Internet access as a human rights violation.

Opponents of the idea that Internet access should be considered a human right, might say, "Oh, quit complaining! Your countrymen were filled with gratitude barely 15 years ago, just to get a few foreign TV channels! So what, if you have to go without the Web every time somebody at PTCL or Etisalat wants to vent his frustration over his issues or had a drop too much the previous night!"

Valid argument...in some ways. But, there are equally valid counter-arguments.
Firstly, foreign TV channels - especially news channels - were a lot more free to truly disclose & discuss current events 15 years ago than they are today.
Secondly, if corporate frustration is building up in either PTCL or Etisalat, somebody who can get in touch with Dr. Daniel Ritz (President & CEO of PTCL), ought to request him to introduce the executives & employees to some top-of-the-line industrial psychologists who would be willing & able to help them work out their problems.
Thirdly, if alcoholism or substance abuse is plaguing the company, maybe Dr. Ritz could consider asking the executives of an outstandingly-committed & quality-conscious company like China Mobile (& its Pakistani subsidiary, Zong) for some professional support.
I'm not an executive with PTCL or Etisalat, so I don't really know what challenges Dr. Ritz faces in running PTCL; I'm just trying to think constructively, instead of accusing everyone at PTCL from top to bottom, of gross incompetence.

What Can PTCL Do To Remedy The Situation?

The repetitious nature of PTCL's technological snafus would hint that the current approach is not working; in fact, the situation is so bad that many Pakistani subscribers maintain that service quality was actually better before Etisalat breezed into town & PTCL was privatized. But, if Etisalat is in such deep trouble that it cannot even clear its debts, than the service quality deterioration story has only just begun.

According to PkFinance.info, PTCL shares are currently in free fall, practically losing value by the hour. At close of trading yesterday (June 24, 2016), each share cost PKR14.82 as compared to the previous day's (June 23, 2016) close of PKR15.21. Even if we only concentrated on the principal amount Etisalat owes the taxpayers of Pakistan (& don't add interest or even calculate the amount in terms of real value), the debt (pending since 2005) is a hefty US$800 million - in other words, around 30 PTCL shares to each man, woman & child in Pakistan. Had there been the slightest indication that Etisalat is going to be able to clear its debts in the foreseeable future, its stock price wouldn't be crashing - & a stock offering might just have been a barely acceptable compensation plan for the horrendous 11-year (& counting) default. But, tragically, it doesn't seem that even Dr. Ritz's glittery Western credentials can be considered remotely relevant to finding a legal & credible solution to the problem.

There is one way that Etisalat can pay off the US$800 million without allowing Finance Minister Dar to flush Etisalat's brand image down the toilet by simply "decreeing" that people should let the company off just because he feels they should. They can take on a partner who will buy their debt in return for a piece of PTCL.

Opponents of this approach would instantly object & derisively ask why any company executive in his right senses would want to have anything to do with a currently-suspected-to-be-bankrupt company like Etisalat. The answer consists of two components, both of which, coincidentally, were announced yesterday (June 24, 2016):
1. Pakistan has been officially made a Member State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): This development not only indicates further strengthening of trade ties with brother country China, but also signals the beginning of Pakistan's de facto access to the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC).
2. Britain has made the historical decision of severing its decades-long economic ties with the European Union (EU): While the consequences of this decision are not entirely clear just yet, but so far most Brit experts are quite sure that firstly, the effects (they termed it "damage costs") will take at least 2 years to settle down, secondly, Scotland has recommenced foreboding mutterings of independence, & thirdly, every high-profile Asian firm in London is busy chalking out a "Brexit strategy" of their own.

Therefore, now would be an excellent time to start looking for promising investors in PTCL, & the most appropriate names to start with would be as follows:

China:

Industrial & Commercial Bank Of China (ICBC)

China Construction Bank Corporation

Japan:

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group

Mizuho Financial Group

South Korea:

Hana Financial Group

Shinhan Financial Group

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